Is The Pandemic Ending?

The below graphs show the latest death trends from COVID-19.

If you can read a chart and you can see a trend then one cannot help but to be optimistic about the future.

Source: Worldometer.info

HARD LESSONS

In case you are wondering why I chose these six regions, it’s because each region or State either had excessive lockdowns, or minimal ones, but the outcome for all seems to be uniform at the present.

Deaths from COVID are falling.

Yes, there are places where daily deaths remain high. Specifically, India and Brazil continue to dominate in numbers of daily deaths. What is happening in Brazil and India could also be weather related, as both are in their rainy seasons in places like Rio as well as New Delhi and Bangalore. People tend to stay indoors. Add to this lockdowns are still mandatory in both countries. Brazil also used a Chinese vaccine that was less than 50% effective. India has had vaccine distribution issues and social distancing is not as practical in many regions.

Science may one day determine that lockdowns were in fact the main driver of deaths in places like the UK, Italy and China, and here at home in places like New York and California; we may finally have to admit being outdoors getting fresh oxygen was the best antidote for Covid after all.

We know the virus doesn’t like sunlight and oxygen; its membrane is very soluble, which means atmospheric conditions can kill it quickly. Hence, most of what we thought would be major super-spreader events turned out not to be. I can’t think of one event where there was definite linkage to a subsequent coronavirus outbreak, except perhaps a wave of new cases that followed in the late Summer. But new cases were also driven by false positives and repeat testers. Death rates have never repeated elsewhere in the US from what we saw in New York and the tri-State area in Spring 2020 – when both cases AND deaths rose dramatically from older people being exposed.

And even that event we now know was exacerbated by mandates requiring the sick to be put in rest homes alongside the elderly. It was, as they say, the perfect storm in New York that scared the hell out of a rest of us.

If you recall, a 2nd wave erupted in late October across the U.S., just as flu season was beginning and just after many States were easing lockdown provisions.

Interestingly, the ones that eased lockdowns have faired better than those that re-instituted them. Overseas in The UK, France and Germany, along with U.S. states like Michigan, California and New York continued to see cases rise even after lockdowns continued, whereas Florida, Sweden, Spain, which eased lockdowns, maintained new case rates but mortality were manageable and even tapered off sooner than in heavy lockdown regions.

Trends over a long enough timeline become predictable. We are now almost a year-and-a-half into this pandemic and it appears, even with variants that pop up here and there, the news is better than it is worse.

In the U.S. and elsewhere we are no longer seeing the explosion of new deaths we witnessed in the first few months of the pandemic; we also have at least 3, if not 4 workable vaccines; the elderly are being protected, our front line workers are being protected, new cases are dropping and new deaths are following suit.

If there was a time to be optimistic, now would be that time despite the naysayers who want to keep playing up the fear because they believe people will act irresponsibly if told to have confidence things are improving.

It’s not normal just yet, but we are closer to it now than we have ever been.

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