Coronavirus Science

Has Covid-19 Peaked?

I will make no claim other than I am using science to display how COVID 19 may be fading fast, at least in most developed countries. The jury is still out on Brazil, India, and Russia, but the statistics show that what we have seen in the early countries that were hard hit by the coronavirus, the worst seems to be over, with the caveat that perhaps there could be a second wave, even though there has yet to be a substantial second wave that equaled the first.

Based on CDC and WHO data from June 2, 2020, and in looking at daily deaths (the only real number that counts), we can see a downward trend almost uniformly.

Starting with the U.S.:

(note the six-day cycle where there is a brief peak and then it drops down for five or six days, decreasing in intensity in each cycle:

Sweden, the sole developed European country that did not go into lockdown, but instead, had faith its citizenry would follow social distancing guidelines, they too, seem to have peaked:

And then there’s Belgium, per capita the hardest hit country:

The UK, which is still reeling from an intense month of high death counts, is finally easing:

Italy can finally breath a sigh of relief:

The French are almost ready to start kissing again:

Hotspots like Brazil and India are worth watching. Brazil is still seeing triple digit deaths but its peak was two weeks ago:

We’ll know by late June where India is heading because if the peak remains May 29 for a sustained period, that could be good news while the country tries to adhere to strict lock down measures to “flatten the curve.”

113 countries have had less than 100 deaths from COVID (assuming the records are correct), and 39 countries have reported no deaths. The virus has been circulating since (we think) January, perhaps even early December, which makes the stronger case that community spread is what is happening with the SRS-CoV-2 virus as it makes its way around the world.

Let’s hope so. There is a lot of work ahead.

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