James. R Watkins
In what is being called a staggering new statistic, a new study delves into the number of COVID-19 related deaths in each State, and where they are occurring. We already know that older people are at much greater risk of dying from Coronavirus; we also know that people with serious underlying health problems are also at risk. This latest report shows the percentage of people in the U.S. who are in health-care facilities, versus people who are dying in the general population.
Phil Kerpen, who gather the data and published his findings HERE, says more than half of all deaths (52.2%) are occuring in nursing homes in each state.
Obviously the tragic news is our most vulnerable are the most susceptible to dying from COVID-19; the better news is that if most fatalities are occurring outside of the general population, then the fatality rate is far lower among the general population than previously believed, hence the need for extreme lockdown policies in many counties in several States could ease much quicker based on these latest confirmed findings.
For example, last week we reported that more than half of all deaths in California are in nursing homes, according to a published report in Lancet. The Kerper study confirms the same is true across all States. The implications follows that general population fatality rates are essentially half.
Using simple man, this means the COVID-19 fatality rate in California is not .010, but half of that, .005 (the common flu has a .10 fatality rate)
The study also includes source links:
Nursing Home COVID Deaths by State | |||||||||||||
by @kerpen and @nosmhnmh | |||||||||||||
Change from yesterday’s sheet | |||||||||||||
Data Reporting Status | last update | Nursing home deaths | State deaths on date | Total Deaths Minus Nursing Home Deaths | Nursing Home Share of Deaths | Total Nursing Home Residents 2017 | COVID nursing home deaths as % of all 2017 nursing home residents | https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/number-of-nursing-facility-residents/ | Nursing home deaths | State deaths on date | Total Deaths Minus Nursing Home Deaths | ||
Reporting states total, NY doubled to compensate for exclusion of hospital deaths | 34,658 | 66,374 | 31,716 | 52.2% | 1,182,809 | 2.9% | |||||||
Reporting states total excluding NY | 23,752 | 44,734 | 20,982 | 53.1% | 1,081,291 | 2.2% | |||||||
Alabama | Reporting – media | 4-May | 107 | 296 | 189 | 36.1% | 22,482 | 0.5% | https://www.wsfa.com/2020/05/03/over-test-positive-covid-alabama/ | 0 | 0 | ||
Alaska | Not Reporting | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
Arizona | Not Reporting | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
Arkansas | Reporting – media | 10-May | 32 | 91 | 59 | 35.2% | 17,439 | 0.2% | https://www.ksla.com/2020/03/17/daily-report-arkansas-dept-health-monitoring-covid-/ | 0 | 0 | ||
California | Conflicting reports | 8-May | 1276 | 2,585 | 1,309 | 49.4% | 101,030 | 1.3% | https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/SNFsCOVID_19.aspx | 0 | 0 | ||
Colorado | Best data – Wed | 6-May | 530 | 921 | 391 | 57.5% | 16,078 | 3.3% | 0 | 0 | |||
Connecticut | Best data – Thu | 6-May | 1,627 | 2,718 | 1,091 | 59.9% | 22,653 | 7.2% | https://portal.ct.gov/Office-of-the-Governor/News/Press-Releases/2020/05-2020/Governor-Lamont-Coronavirus-Update-May-7 | 0 | 0 | ||
Delaware | Reporting | 5-May | 121 | 187 | 66 | 64.7% | 4,181 | 2.9% | https://www.delawarepublic.org/post/delaware-plans-start-universal-testing-long-term-care-facilities | 0 | 0 | ||
District of Columbia | Reporting | 4-May | 72 | 258 | 186 | 27.9% | 2,380 | 3.0% | 0 | 0 | |||
Florida | Best data – daily | 11-May | 714 | 1,735 | 1,021 | 41.2% | 72,741 | 1.0% | https://www.floridadisaster.org/news-media/news/20200508-florida-department-of-health-updates-new-covid-19-cases-announces-sixty-nine-deaths-related-to-covid-19/ | 11 | 14 | 3 | |
Georgia | Best data – daily – staff | 8-May | 672 | 1,395 | 723 | 48.2% | 33,043 | 2.0% | https://dch.georgia.gov/ | 0 | 0 | ||
Hawaii | Not Reporting | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
Idaho | Not Reporting | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
Illinois | Good data – Fri | 8-May | 1,553 | 3,241 | 1,688 | 47.9% | 66,643 | 2.3% | https://www.dph.illinois.gov/covid19/long-term-care-facility-outbreaks-covid-19 | 0 | 0 | ||
Indiana | Best data – Mon | 11-May | 584 | 1,511 | 927 | 38.6% | 38,682 | 1.5% | https://twitter.com/StateHealthIN/status/1259875922859233284/photo/1 | 164 | 297 | 133 | |
Iowa | Not Reporting | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
Kansas | M-W-F Gov briefing | 8-May | 85 | 152 | 67 | 55.9% | 14,657 | 0.6% | https://www.facebook.com/pg/GovLauraKelly/videos/?ref=page_internal | 0 | 0 | ||
Kentucky | Best data – daily – staff | 10-May | 178 | 304 | 126 | 58.6% | 22,760 | 0.8% | https://chfs.ky.gov/agencies/dph/covid19/LTCupdate.pdf | 0 | 0 | ||
Louisiana | Media | 4-May | 738 | 1,991 | 1,253 | 37.1% | 26,169 | 2.8% | https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_e6e378e2-8e0f-11ea-a09d-fffe3 | 0 | 0 | ||
Maine | Reporting (KFF) | 7-May | 35 | 62 | 27 | 56.5% | 5,947 | 0.6% | 0 | 0 | |||
Maryland | Best data – Wed – staff | 6-May | 804 | 1,338 | 534 | 60.1% | 24,414 | 3.3% | 0 | 0 | |||
Massachusetts | Best data – daily | 10-May | 3,001 | 4,979 | 1,978 | 60.3% | 38,673 | 7.8% | https://www.mass.gov/info-details/covid-19-response-reporting | 0 | 0 | ||
Michigan | Only cases for now | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
Minnesota | Best data – daily | 11-May | 472 | 591 | 119 | 79.9% | 24,755 | 1.9% | https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/situation.html#death1 | 8 | 13 | 5 | |
Mississippi | Best data – daily – staff | 11-May | 193 | 435 | 242 | 44.4% | 15,950 | 1.2% | https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,0,420.html | 2 | 5 | 3 | |
Missouri | Not Reporting | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
Montana | Not Reporting | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
Nebraska | Media | 57 | 86 | 29 | 66.3% | 11,394 | 0.5% | 0 | 0 | ||||
Nevada | Best data – daily – staff | 8-May | 63 | 293 | 230 | 21.5% | 5,336 | 1.2% | https://app.powerbigov.us/view?r=eyJrIjoiNDMwMDI0YmQtNmUyYS00ZmFjLWI0MGItZDM0OTY1Y2Y0YzNhIiwidCI6ImU0YTM0MGU2LWI4OWUtNGU2OC04ZWFhLTE1NDRkMjcwMzk4MCJ9 | 0 | 0 | ||
New Hampshire | Media | 8-May | 91 | 118 | 27 | 77.1% | 6,442 | 1.4% | https://twitter.com/KlandriganUL/status/1258882931851964420 | 0 | 0 | ||
New Jersey | Best data – daily | 11-May | 4,890 | 9,310 | 4,420 | 52.5% | 44,033 | 11.1% | https://covid19.nj.gov/#live-updates | 35 | 55 | 20 | |
New Mexico | Media | 6-May | 76 | 162 | 86 | 46.9% | 5,693 | 1.3% | https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/coronavirus/state-confirms-first-santa-fe-death-from-covid-19/article_258b12ae-8fd1-11ea-afd3-d7bb9ee7818d.html | 0 | 0 | ||
New York | Bad data – still excludes residents who die at hospital | 11-May | 5,453 | 21,640 | 16,187 | 25.2% | 101,518 | 5.4% | *NY is the only state to exclude deaths of nursing home residents who die at a hospital. Do not compare with other states. | 50 | 162 | 112 | |
North Carolina | Best data – Tuesday & Friday 4 PM | 11-May | 323 | 550 | 227 | 58.7% | 35,763 | 0.9% | https://www.ncdhhs.gov/divisions/public-health/covid19/covid-19-nc-case-count#key-metricsis-north-carolina-slowing-the-spread- | 11 | 23 | 12 | |
North Dakota | Not Reporting | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
Ohio | Good data – Wed – staff | 6-May | 499 | 1,102 | 603 | 45.3% | 73,826 | 0.7% | missing data prior to April 15 (excluded from denominator for uniformity, 123 total deaths) | 0 | 0 | ||
Oklahoma | Reporting – KFF | 7-May | 111 | 253 | 142 | 43.9% | 18,361 | 0.6% | https://oklahoman.com/article/5661567/coronavirus-in-oklahoma-grim-milestone-reached-in-nursing-home-deaths | 0 | 0 | ||
Oregon | Best data – Tue – staff | 5-May | 68 | 113 | 45 | 60.2% | 7,317 | 0.9% | 0 | 0 | |||
Pennsylvania | Best data – daily – staff | 11-May | 2,552 | 3,731 | 1,179 | 68.4% | 76,652 | 3.3% | https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/coronavirus/Pages/Cases.aspx | 23 | 24 | 1 | |
Rhode Island | Reporting – weekly, press | 10-May | 314 | 419 | 105 | 74.9% | 7,817 | 4.0% | https://www.golocalprov.com/news/7-Major-Coronavirus-Developments-RIs-Nursing-Home-Patients-Dying-Twice-t | 34 | 49 | 15 | |
South Carolina | Reporting – twice weekly | 8-May | 107 | 320 | 213 | 33.4% | 16,993 | 0.6% | https://scdhec.gov/sites/default/files/media/document/LTCFs-05.04.2020_rev.pdf | 0 | 0 | ||
South Dakota | Not Reporting | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
Tennessee | Best data – daily | 11-May | 87 | 251 | 164 | 34.7% | 26,481 | 0.3% | https://www.tn.gov/health/cedep/ncov.html | 0 | 8 | 8 | |
Texas | Media | 8-May | 478 | 1042 | 564 | 45.9% | 92,250 | 0.5% | https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/amp/Which-nursing-homes-have-coronavirus-outbreaks-15257923.php | 0 | 0 | ||
Utah | Reporting – KFF | 6-May | 26 | 58 | 32 | 44.8% | 5,178 | 0.5% | 0 | 0 | |||
Vermont | Not Reporting | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
Virginia | Best data – daily | 11-May | 503 | 850 | 347 | 59.2% | 27,595 | 1.8% | 14 | 11 | -3 | ||
Washington | Media | 2-May | 507 | 824 | 317 | 61.5% | 15,993 | 3.2% | https://apnews.com/9ea665c7979b4590eedab0e491f45e55 | 0 | 0 | ||
West Virginia | Reporting – daily | 9-May | 33 | 53 | 20 | 62.3% | 9,251 | 0.4% | https://dhhr.wv.gov/COVID-19/Pages/default.aspx | 0 | 0 | ||
Wisconsin | Reporting | 11-May | 173 | 409 | 236 | 42.3% | 24,239 | 0.7% | https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/deaths.htm | 4 | 9 | 5 |