James. R Watkins

In what is being called a staggering new statistic, a new study delves into the number of COVID-19 related deaths in each State, and where they are occurring. We already know that older people are at much greater risk of dying from Coronavirus; we also know that people with serious underlying health problems are also at risk. This latest report shows the percentage of people in the U.S. who are in health-care facilities, versus people who are dying in the general population.

Phil Kerpen, who gather the data and published his findings HERE, says more than half of all deaths (52.2%) are occuring in nursing homes in each state.

Obviously the tragic news is our most vulnerable are the most susceptible to dying from COVID-19; the better news is that if most fatalities are occurring outside of the general population, then the fatality rate is far lower among the general population than previously believed, hence the need for extreme lockdown policies in many counties in several States could ease much quicker based on these latest confirmed findings.

For example, last week we reported that more than half of all deaths in California are in nursing homes, according to a published report in Lancet. The Kerper study confirms the same is true across all States. The implications follows that general population fatality rates are essentially half.

Using simple man, this means the COVID-19 fatality rate in California is not .010, but half of that, .005 (the common flu has a .10 fatality rate)

The study also includes source links:

Nursing Home COVID Deaths by State
by @kerpen and @nosmhnmh
											Change from yesterday’s sheet
	Data Reporting Status	last update	Nursing home deaths	State deaths on date	Total Deaths Minus Nursing Home Deaths	Nursing Home Share of Deaths		Total Nursing Home Residents 2017	COVID nursing home deaths as % of all 2017 nursing home residents	https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/number-of-nursing-facility-residents/	Nursing home deaths	State deaths on date	Total Deaths Minus Nursing Home Deaths
Reporting states total, NY doubled to compensate for exclusion of hospital deaths	34,658	66,374	31,716	52.2%		1,182,809	2.9%
		Reporting states total excluding NY	23,752	44,734	20,982	53.1%		1,081,291	2.2%
Alabama	Reporting – media	4-May	107	296	189	36.1%		22,482	0.5%	https://www.wsfa.com/2020/05/03/over-test-positive-covid-alabama/	0	0
Alaska	Not Reporting										0	0
Arizona	Not Reporting										0	0
Arkansas	Reporting – media	10-May	32	91	59	35.2%		17,439	0.2%	https://www.ksla.com/2020/03/17/daily-report-arkansas-dept-health-monitoring-covid-/	0	0
California	Conflicting reports	8-May	1276	2,585	1,309	49.4%		101,030	1.3%	https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/SNFsCOVID_19.aspx	0	0
Colorado	Best data – Wed	6-May	530	921	391	57.5%		16,078	3.3%		0	0
Connecticut	Best data – Thu	6-May	1,627	2,718	1,091	59.9%		22,653	7.2%	https://portal.ct.gov/Office-of-the-Governor/News/Press-Releases/2020/05-2020/Governor-Lamont-Coronavirus-Update-May-7	0	0
Delaware	Reporting	5-May	121	187	66	64.7%		4,181	2.9%	https://www.delawarepublic.org/post/delaware-plans-start-universal-testing-long-term-care-facilities	0	0
District of Columbia	Reporting	4-May	72	258	186	27.9%		2,380	3.0%		0	0
Florida	Best data – daily	11-May	714	1,735	1,021	41.2%		72,741	1.0%	https://www.floridadisaster.org/news-media/news/20200508-florida-department-of-health-updates-new-covid-19-cases-announces-sixty-nine-deaths-related-to-covid-19/	11	14	3
Georgia	Best data – daily – staff	8-May	672	1,395	723	48.2%		33,043	2.0%	https://dch.georgia.gov/	0	0
Hawaii	Not Reporting										0	0
Idaho	Not Reporting										0	0
Illinois	Good data – Fri	8-May	1,553	3,241	1,688	47.9%		66,643	2.3%	https://www.dph.illinois.gov/covid19/long-term-care-facility-outbreaks-covid-19	0	0
Indiana	Best data – Mon	11-May	584	1,511	927	38.6%		38,682	1.5%	https://twitter.com/StateHealthIN/status/1259875922859233284/photo/1	164	297	133
Iowa	Not Reporting										0	0
Kansas	M-W-F Gov briefing	8-May	85	152	67	55.9%		14,657	0.6%	https://www.facebook.com/pg/GovLauraKelly/videos/?ref=page_internal	0	0
Kentucky	Best data – daily – staff	10-May	178	304	126	58.6%		22,760	0.8%	https://chfs.ky.gov/agencies/dph/covid19/LTCupdate.pdf	0	0
Louisiana	Media	4-May	738	1,991	1,253	37.1%		26,169	2.8%	https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_e6e378e2-8e0f-11ea-a09d-fffe3	0	0
Maine	Reporting (KFF)	7-May	35	62	27	56.5%		5,947	0.6%		0	0
Maryland	Best data – Wed – staff	6-May	804	1,338	534	60.1%		24,414	3.3%		0	0
Massachusetts	Best data – daily	10-May	3,001	4,979	1,978	60.3%		38,673	7.8%	https://www.mass.gov/info-details/covid-19-response-reporting	0	0
Michigan	Only cases for now										0	0
Minnesota	Best data – daily	11-May	472	591	119	79.9%		24,755	1.9%	https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/situation.html#death1	8	13	5
Mississippi	Best data – daily – staff	11-May	193	435	242	44.4%		15,950	1.2%	https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,0,420.html	2	5	3
Missouri	Not Reporting										0	0
Montana	Not Reporting										0	0
Nebraska	Media		57	86	29	66.3%		11,394	0.5%		0	0
Nevada	Best data – daily – staff	8-May	63	293	230	21.5%		5,336	1.2%	https://app.powerbigov.us/view?r=eyJrIjoiNDMwMDI0YmQtNmUyYS00ZmFjLWI0MGItZDM0OTY1Y2Y0YzNhIiwidCI6ImU0YTM0MGU2LWI4OWUtNGU2OC04ZWFhLTE1NDRkMjcwMzk4MCJ9	0	0
New Hampshire	Media	8-May	91	118	27	77.1%		6,442	1.4%	https://twitter.com/KlandriganUL/status/1258882931851964420	0	0
New Jersey	Best data – daily	11-May	4,890	9,310	4,420	52.5%		44,033	11.1%	https://covid19.nj.gov/#live-updates	35	55	20
New Mexico	Media	6-May	76	162	86	46.9%		5,693	1.3%	https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/coronavirus/state-confirms-first-santa-fe-death-from-covid-19/article_258b12ae-8fd1-11ea-afd3-d7bb9ee7818d.html	0	0
New York	Bad data – still excludes residents who die at hospital	11-May	5,453	21,640	16,187	25.2%		101,518	5.4%	*NY is the only state to exclude deaths of nursing home residents who die at a hospital. Do not compare with other states.	50	162	112
North Carolina	Best data – Tuesday & Friday 4 PM	11-May	323	550	227	58.7%		35,763	0.9%	https://www.ncdhhs.gov/divisions/public-health/covid19/covid-19-nc-case-count#key-metricsis-north-carolina-slowing-the-spread-	11	23	12
North Dakota	Not Reporting										0	0
Ohio	Good data – Wed – staff	6-May	499	1,102	603	45.3%		73,826	0.7%	missing data prior to April 15 (excluded from denominator for uniformity, 123 total deaths)	0	0
Oklahoma	Reporting – KFF	7-May	111	253	142	43.9%		18,361	0.6%	https://oklahoman.com/article/5661567/coronavirus-in-oklahoma-grim-milestone-reached-in-nursing-home-deaths	0	0
Oregon	Best data – Tue – staff	5-May	68	113	45	60.2%		7,317	0.9%		0	0
Pennsylvania	Best data – daily – staff	11-May	2,552	3,731	1,179	68.4%		76,652	3.3%	https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/coronavirus/Pages/Cases.aspx	23	24	1
Rhode Island	Reporting – weekly, press	10-May	314	419	105	74.9%		7,817	4.0%	https://www.golocalprov.com/news/7-Major-Coronavirus-Developments-RIs-Nursing-Home-Patients-Dying-Twice-t	34	49	15
South Carolina	Reporting – twice weekly	8-May	107	320	213	33.4%		16,993	0.6%	https://scdhec.gov/sites/default/files/media/document/LTCFs-05.04.2020_rev.pdf	0	0
South Dakota	Not Reporting										0	0
Tennessee	Best data – daily	11-May	87	251	164	34.7%		26,481	0.3%	https://www.tn.gov/health/cedep/ncov.html	0	8	8
Texas	Media	8-May	478	1042	564	45.9%		92,250	0.5%	https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/amp/Which-nursing-homes-have-coronavirus-outbreaks-15257923.php	0	0
Utah	Reporting – KFF	6-May	26	58	32	44.8%		5,178	0.5%		0	0
Vermont	Not Reporting										0	0
Virginia	Best data – daily	11-May	503	850	347	59.2%		27,595	1.8%		14	11	-3
Washington	Media	2-May	507	824	317	61.5%		15,993	3.2%	https://apnews.com/9ea665c7979b4590eedab0e491f45e55	0	0
West Virginia	Reporting – daily	9-May	33	53	20	62.3%		9,251	0.4%	https://dhhr.wv.gov/COVID-19/Pages/default.aspx	0	0
Wisconsin	Reporting	11-May	173	409	236	42.3%		24,239	0.7%	https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/deaths.htm	4	9	5