50% of All Covid-19 Deaths Are in Nursing Homes

James. R Watkins

In what is being called a staggering new statistic, a new study delves into the number of COVID-19 related deaths in each State, and where they are occurring. We already know that older people are at much greater risk of dying from Coronavirus; we also know that people with serious underlying health problems are also at risk. This latest report shows the percentage of people in the U.S. who are in health-care facilities, versus people who are dying in the general population.

Phil Kerpen, who gather the data and published his findings HERE, says more than half of all deaths (52.2%) are occuring in nursing homes in each state.

Obviously the tragic news is our most vulnerable are the most susceptible to dying from COVID-19; the better news is that if most fatalities are occurring outside of the general population, then the fatality rate is far lower among the general population than previously believed, hence the need for extreme lockdown policies in many counties in several States could ease much quicker based on these latest confirmed findings.

For example, last week we reported that more than half of all deaths in California are in nursing homes, according to a published report in Lancet. The Kerper study confirms the same is true across all States. The implications follows that general population fatality rates are essentially half.

Using simple man, this means the COVID-19 fatality rate in California is not .010, but half of that, .005 (the common flu has a .10 fatality rate)

The study also includes source links:

Nursing Home COVID Deaths by State
by @kerpen and @nosmhnmh
Change from yesterday’s sheet
Data Reporting Statuslast updateNursing home deathsState deaths on dateTotal Deaths Minus Nursing Home DeathsNursing Home Share of DeathsTotal Nursing Home Residents 2017COVID nursing home deaths as % of all 2017 nursing home residentshttps://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/number-of-nursing-facility-residents/Nursing home deathsState deaths on dateTotal Deaths Minus Nursing Home Deaths
Reporting states total, NY doubled to compensate for exclusion of hospital deaths34,65866,37431,71652.2%1,182,8092.9%
Reporting states total excluding NY23,75244,73420,98253.1%1,081,2912.2%
AlabamaReporting – media4-May10729618936.1%22,4820.5%https://www.wsfa.com/2020/05/03/over-test-positive-covid-alabama/00
AlaskaNot Reporting00
ArizonaNot Reporting00
ArkansasReporting – media10-May32915935.2%17,4390.2%https://www.ksla.com/2020/03/17/daily-report-arkansas-dept-health-monitoring-covid-/00
CaliforniaConflicting reports8-May12762,5851,30949.4%101,0301.3%https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/SNFsCOVID_19.aspx00
ColoradoBest data – Wed6-May53092139157.5%16,0783.3%00
ConnecticutBest data – Thu6-May1,6272,7181,09159.9%22,6537.2%https://portal.ct.gov/Office-of-the-Governor/News/Press-Releases/2020/05-2020/Governor-Lamont-Coronavirus-Update-May-700
DelawareReporting5-May1211876664.7%4,1812.9%https://www.delawarepublic.org/post/delaware-plans-start-universal-testing-long-term-care-facilities00
District of ColumbiaReporting4-May7225818627.9%2,3803.0%00
FloridaBest data – daily11-May7141,7351,02141.2%72,7411.0%https://www.floridadisaster.org/news-media/news/20200508-florida-department-of-health-updates-new-covid-19-cases-announces-sixty-nine-deaths-related-to-covid-19/11143
GeorgiaBest data – daily – staff8-May6721,39572348.2%33,0432.0%https://dch.georgia.gov/00
HawaiiNot Reporting00
IdahoNot Reporting00
IllinoisGood data – Fri8-May1,5533,2411,68847.9%66,6432.3%https://www.dph.illinois.gov/covid19/long-term-care-facility-outbreaks-covid-1900
IndianaBest data – Mon11-May5841,51192738.6%38,6821.5%https://twitter.com/StateHealthIN/status/1259875922859233284/photo/1164297133
IowaNot Reporting00
KansasM-W-F Gov briefing8-May851526755.9%14,6570.6%https://www.facebook.com/pg/GovLauraKelly/videos/?ref=page_internal00
KentuckyBest data – daily – staff10-May17830412658.6%22,7600.8%https://chfs.ky.gov/agencies/dph/covid19/LTCupdate.pdf00
LouisianaMedia4-May7381,9911,25337.1%26,1692.8%https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_e6e378e2-8e0f-11ea-a09d-fffe300
MaineReporting (KFF)7-May35622756.5%5,9470.6%00
MarylandBest data – Wed – staff6-May8041,33853460.1%24,4143.3%00
MassachusettsBest data – daily10-May3,0014,9791,97860.3%38,6737.8%https://www.mass.gov/info-details/covid-19-response-reporting00
MichiganOnly cases for now00
MinnesotaBest data – daily11-May47259111979.9%24,7551.9%https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/situation.html#death18135
MississippiBest data – daily – staff11-May19343524244.4%15,9501.2%https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,0,420.html253
MissouriNot Reporting00
MontanaNot Reporting00
NebraskaMedia57862966.3%11,3940.5%00
NevadaBest data – daily – staff8-May6329323021.5%5,3361.2%https://app.powerbigov.us/view?r=eyJrIjoiNDMwMDI0YmQtNmUyYS00ZmFjLWI0MGItZDM0OTY1Y2Y0YzNhIiwidCI6ImU0YTM0MGU2LWI4OWUtNGU2OC04ZWFhLTE1NDRkMjcwMzk4MCJ900
New HampshireMedia8-May911182777.1%6,4421.4%https://twitter.com/KlandriganUL/status/125888293185196442000
New JerseyBest data – daily11-May4,8909,3104,42052.5%44,03311.1%https://covid19.nj.gov/#live-updates355520
New MexicoMedia6-May761628646.9%5,6931.3%https://www.santafenewmexican.com/news/coronavirus/state-confirms-first-santa-fe-death-from-covid-19/article_258b12ae-8fd1-11ea-afd3-d7bb9ee7818d.html00
New YorkBad data – still excludes residents who die at hospital11-May5,45321,64016,18725.2%101,5185.4%*NY is the only state to exclude deaths of nursing home residents who die at a hospital. Do not compare with other states.50162112
North CarolinaBest data – Tuesday & Friday 4 PM11-May32355022758.7%35,7630.9%https://www.ncdhhs.gov/divisions/public-health/covid19/covid-19-nc-case-count#key-metricsis-north-carolina-slowing-the-spread-112312
North DakotaNot Reporting00
OhioGood data – Wed – staff6-May4991,10260345.3%73,8260.7%missing data prior to April 15 (excluded from denominator for uniformity, 123 total deaths)00
OklahomaReporting – KFF7-May11125314243.9%18,3610.6%https://oklahoman.com/article/5661567/coronavirus-in-oklahoma-grim-milestone-reached-in-nursing-home-deaths00
OregonBest data – Tue – staff5-May681134560.2%7,3170.9%00
PennsylvaniaBest data – daily – staff11-May2,5523,7311,17968.4%76,6523.3%https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/coronavirus/Pages/Cases.aspx23241
Rhode IslandReporting – weekly, press10-May31441910574.9%7,8174.0%https://www.golocalprov.com/news/7-Major-Coronavirus-Developments-RIs-Nursing-Home-Patients-Dying-Twice-t344915
South CarolinaReporting – twice weekly8-May10732021333.4%16,9930.6%https://scdhec.gov/sites/default/files/media/document/LTCFs-05.04.2020_rev.pdf00
South DakotaNot Reporting00
TennesseeBest data – daily11-May8725116434.7%26,4810.3%https://www.tn.gov/health/cedep/ncov.html088
TexasMedia8-May478104256445.9%92,2500.5%https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/amp/Which-nursing-homes-have-coronavirus-outbreaks-15257923.php00
UtahReporting – KFF6-May26583244.8%5,1780.5%00
VermontNot Reporting00
VirginiaBest data – daily11-May50385034759.2%27,5951.8%1411-3
WashingtonMedia2-May50782431761.5%15,9933.2%https://apnews.com/9ea665c7979b4590eedab0e491f45e5500
West VirginiaReporting – daily9-May33532062.3%9,2510.4%https://dhhr.wv.gov/COVID-19/Pages/default.aspx00
WisconsinReporting11-May17340923642.3%24,2390.7%https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/deaths.htm495

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