by James Watkins
The entire media is screaming about a prediction today that FEMA is forecasting stating by June 3,000 people per day will be dying of COVID-19 if we ease restrictions and re-open the economy.
People are at odds with each other because 3,000 sounds like a bad number, except that its 60 people a day on average per State. We have to ask ourselves if it is logical to kill the U.S. economy just to save 60 people a day per State, especially when it is a fact that 577 people per day per State die per day for all kinds of other reasons.
Never mind that China never experienced 3,000 deaths per day even though it is four times larger than the United States. Who makes these projections? What are the based upon? Have they been peer-reviewed? has it reached consensus as this initial report is being circulated among the media to create stark headlines at a time when people are feeling better seeing the death rates go down?
I counted nine different news networks all proclaiming in unison the ‘3,000 people-dying-a-day-by- June.’ study. ABC, CBS, CNN, The New York Times, The Financial Times, MSNBC, CNBC, NBC and The Washington Post all declareing the same statistic. All of this is an concerted effort to push back against those who want to get back to work, people who are, day by day, losing their livelihoods because some statisticians created data sets based on worse case mathematical projections based on current average data projected outward.
Those who are Science-based should know there are now five different published studies that all concur the coronavirus has spread much farther and more extensively than previously believed, and is far less lethal, which is the real reason why the death rates have dropped. Not shelter in-place.
In all major U.S. cities the virus was already in circulation by the second week in January, which gave it eight weeks to spread. With an infection rate of Ra3 (3 persons per 1 infected carrier), CV would have already infected 50-70% of us by April when most of the lost-downs started.
Current estimates put this virus at a fatality rate of .06 percent.
This marks the first time in human history where people who are NOT Infected are being told to shelter in place.
The fear that is being pushed isn’t being properly evaluated. 3,000 sounds is not a fixed number or even a probability; it’s a projection based on a worst-case-scenario prediction. Not exactly the best reason to critically inflict a global economy.