At an infection rate (RA) of 3 persons per day exponentially (doubling each day), it would take just 33 days for nCoV-19 to spread to 6.5 billion people, which is essentially covering the entire population of the planet.
Assuming that the mortality rate is .3 percent, this would be the equivalent of 216,666,666 people who will eventually die of COVID19. Spread out over 185 countries, 1.17 million people will die of Covid-19 related illness, on average per country. Or you could simply divide .3 by the population of any country and that will tell you how many deaths to expect over the course of a year. In America we may see 1.6 million deaths related to COVID-19. As it stands right now, there are 2.7 million deaths a year in the U.S. from all causes. This should provide context, and perhaps some relief.
While every death is tragic, people die. Under the scenario above, this means you might know one more person per year who might fall ill because Covid-19 accelerates the process. Most people do not die from Covid-19 alone, but rather, from what it does to aggravate pre-existing conditions.
It could be a higher percentage in some areas more than others. Nutrition, underlying health issues, the kind of medical care available and age are all factors, but in the end we can probably predict 216 million people will die per year when things settle and the virus has moved ‘round the world,’ which it probably already has considering we are well past 33 days.
One of my favorite lines from, of all TV shows, the Walking Dead (season 1 episode 4) when that doctor at the CDC leans into Rick Grimes ears and says “we’re all infected’, implying that when everyone dies they will become Walkers.
It might not be this week or even this month, but eventually all people will be infected. Mitigation (safe hygiene practices) and access to healthcare will determine outcomes and these variables will determine rates of death in each country or region. That being said, we will all eventually become infected, but 99.7 percent of us will develop an immunity, or, more likely, we’ll have a vaccine within two years MAX.
What we are seeing is that when you live in condensed areas and no one practices safe hygiene measures, people get sick very quickly from new viruses your body has no immunity against. But eventually we will develop resistance because this is what immune systems do when they are well-fortified by the vitamins and minerals we get from proper diet.
We are watching the virus spread with our nicely done Johns Hopkins Red-blob maps but the cases don’t really tell us the extent of the spread. The deaths do. When one person dies in an area you can expect that probably 100,000 people have already been exposed. This was not true in the beginning, but it is true now. The deaths signify the virus has entered the general population and found a few weak souls, what they call community spread.
We are over 140 days since “patient zero” in Wuhan. I believe that all of Asia is already infected, probably most of Europe as well, and probably 70 percent of the U.S. is infected excepting those remote areas with low population density.
The reason more people aren’t dying?
Because you have get bombarded by this virus. This is why medical workers get ill. They get bombarded, like radiation, or similar to getting an x-ray; with each scan your immune system gets weakened like a force field being weakened.
Think Superman and Kryptonite. The longer you are exposed the greater chance COVID-19 will find an entry point or weakness in your immune system.
Being isolated with someone who has coronavirus may not always result in getting sick, but being exposed constantly with a high volume of exposure to this virus increases the likelihood of getting sick. Your immune system determines when the breach occurs.
It is a shame the media aren’t asking the right questions of our doctors and scientists. We stay focused on the wrong data, testing and cases; recoveries and mortality rates per 100,000 are what matter. From there you can deduce actual risk.
It is also a shame that most people don’t understand the power of the immune system and the role a good diet plays in helping you resist diseases in general. No one ever talks about the fact that people who get sick the most usually have the poorest diets. Simply eating a handful of blueberries or fresh strawberries everyday for a few years decreases the chances of having a stroke by 30%. Eating an orange a day will help your gums keep from bleeding, improve bone strength and ward off a cold all at once. That is one powerful fruit!
There is a sense of irony in that I noticed the absence of toilet paper and potato chips during my last visit to the market, but yet there remained a high abundance of oranges. No one was buying the oranges, the one fruit that provides the greatest boost to our immunity.
As the guy said, we’re all infected, but a very small number will get sick and die, and we already know how to mitigate. I will say that we could all go back to work tomorrow if:
- We all wore face masks
- Avoided all body contact with the general public
- Self-isolate if already elderly or sick and stay that way until there is a vaccine or good therapy available.
- Eat some fruit fresh vegetables every single day
- Wash our hands as we are now doing at least three to four times per day and practice safe distancing when possible.
Let’s get back to work.
Professor Henry Carlisle, PhD, M.D.
294 William Avenue, Winnipeg, MB R3B 0R1